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PATHIEL

Backtest

Every trade below actually happened. The router was re-quoted at the block before each one and asked what it would have done.

1

Against real trades

47 replayed · 2 runs
Matched or beat
87%
27 better · 14 identical · 6 worse
Median edge
+1.0bp
vs. the fill they got
Win / loss size
+12 / -23bp
asymmetry beats the average
What is corrected for, and what isn't?

Corrected. Each trade is re-quoted at the block before it executed, because its own swap moved the pool it landed in. Transactions containing more than one Swap log are discarded entirely — a single leg of somebody else’s multi-hop route is not a complete trade, and comparing our whole route against one leg of theirs would flatter this project enormously.

Not corrected. The comparison is gross of gas on both sides. We do not know what they paid, and our own extra-hop cost is not netted out either, which if anything favours them. We also cannot see why they routed as they did: a trade that looks beatable may have been a deliberate venue choice or an MEV-protected order.

The sample is small and recent. Public RPC serves a few thousand blocks, so each run samples the last few hours. Depth accumulates across scheduled runs. Every figure here is recomputed from data/backtest.jsonl, which is committed — so any claim is auditable in the diff that introduced it.

By pair

6 pairs
PairnMedianWin rate
USDC/WETH27+1.0 bp59%
WETH/USDC15+2.0 bp67%
AERO/WETH2-55.5 bp0%
WETH/cbBTC1+0.0 bp0%
cbBTC/WETH1+0.0 bp0%
DEGEN/WETH1+34.0 bp100%

Venue the router picked

  • PancakeSwap V3 0.01%22
  • Uniswap V3 0.01%10
  • Uniswap V3 0.05%6
  • Uniswap V24
  • PancakeSwap V3 0.05%3
  • Uniswap V3 0.30%1
  • Aerodrome v/s via USDC1

1 of 47 replays routed through an intermediate token.

Recent replays

newest first
PairSizeThey gotRouterEdgeTx
USDC/WETH136.40.05475420.0547934+7.0 bp0x9aff…2048
USDC/WETH37.990.01524440.0152627+12.0 bp0xdbe3…4a33
USDC/WETH300.01204720.012051+3.0 bp0xe099…1207
USDC/WETH134.90.05415420.0542309+14.0 bp0xec0b…515c
WETH/USDC0.0247561.303861.5601+41.0 bp0x7fa4…288e
WETH/USDC0.099245.216246.196+39.0 bp0x39ea…104c
WETH/USDC0.099245.217246.181+39.0 bp0xc2b0…de22
USDC/WETH3000.1206070.120612+0.0 bp0x64b9…7ca0
WETH/USDC0.0118529.445929.4459+0.0 bp0x0f74…9d3b
USDC/WETH1,1890.4781420.47817+0.0 bp0x36e0…4bae
WETH/USDC0.0247561.438861.4814+6.0 bp0x465a…67e3
USDC/WETH9890.3968870.398145+31.0 bp0xbe72…a6c9
WETH/USDC0.0183445.533445.3889-31.0 bp0x81ba…b823
DEGEN/WETH104.70.00004415980.000044313+34.0 bp0x3186…78b1
USDC/WETH13,9115.595725.45802-246.0 bp0xa030…7aa5
AERO/WETH441.20.1093130.109313+0.0 bp0xfe81…9e1a
USDC/WETH295.70.1189260.118931+0.0 bp0x6294…9925
WETH/USDC0.1327329.495329.495+0.0 bp0x8cd1…ed74
USDC/WETH42.840.01724920.0172492+0.0 bp0xc86f…1ea4
USDC/WETH78.310.03152310.031524+0.0 bp0x690d…1db5
USDC/WETH47.340.01905770.0190648+3.0 bp0x8b43…bb82
WETH/USDC0.1304323.816323.852+1.0 bp0x0c5a…6641
USDC/WETH266.70.1073360.107347+1.0 bp0xed8c…d44b
USDC/WETH47.340.0190370.0190086-14.0 bp0x9414…209e
cbBTC/WETH0.030710.9706750.970675+0.0 bp0x24d3…feba
Backtest — PATHIEL DEX